Review and Analysis Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power

Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power

By:  Robert D Kaplan

Published in 2010


Why I Got This Book:
I actually got this book by mistake, I really wanted to acquire another one of Kaplan's books called the Asian Caldron, which I saw a review for in one of the Caspian's Reports youtube channel. The question is that I also enjoyed this publication a lot because it is also about geopolitics but instead of focusing on the south china sea, it centers on the Indian Ocean.

Central Thymes:
•    One of the main themes of the book proposed by the author it how the Indian Ocean has been historically interconnected thanks to the predictability of the Monsoon winds.
•    Many of the Muslim country to the East of the Indian Ocean are more moderate or more tolerant to other faith because Islam here mostly expanded to this region because of trade a not by the sword and conquest.
•    The Indian Ocean is the center of the new Asian Century, it has 37 countries and 1/3 of the world's population.
•    Sea routes are more important the land routes the Indian Ocean has become the new silk road, 1/2 of all container traffic cross the Indian Ocean every year, one must add that even though this is mostly true China is heavily investing not only seaport and maritime infrastructure they are also creating a new land route silk road to Europe.  China is really preparing the terrain in becoming the new worlds super power. And even though the book does not discuss the One Belt One Road initiative, you can see its genesis in this book. China investing heavily in ports and infrastructure all over the region for example in Pakistan and Srilanka.
•    The author explains how Oman  a true melting pot culture, Kaplan explains that the country has a true transpolinization of people, language and customs, thanks to historic trade across de Indian Ocean, it is literally a sea born nation that looks to the sea to interact and has a very little developed hinterland with tribal conflicts. The country has strong ties with Iran, but it has been a stable and pro-western State. Oman is an important geopolitical player because of its control of the Gulf of Hormuz.
•    India as a country has no interest in exporting democracy and has no issues working with questionable regimes.
•    Kaplan criticizes the United State foreign policy always fixating on the projection of Western Democracy as the center of its worldview and requirement for working together with other countries, this leads to the US not being able to engage correctly in the Indian ocean and loses an important geopolitical position to other important actors like China and India. The author affirms some societies organize themselves differently or have their own take on democracy and the United State must learn how to respect this to be able to interact with these countries. But  Kaplan seems to forget US's relations ship with Pakistan which as a country is far from being a beacon of democracy in this part of the world. Also, the book is critical on how the US  takes little effort in trying to understand the reality of each country in the region especially Bangladesh or Srilanka.
•    Gujarat is a State in India that has a real potential for religious violence between Hindus and Muslims, even though interaction between both communities in everyday life is an necessity, but as of late relations have become strand and both sides have started to segregate themselves.  With Muslims being alienated more and more, possibly pushing people into fundamentalist hands, Kaplan affirms that India has more to lose dealing with Islamic Terrorism than any other State in the region.
•    Narendra Modi is the face of Hindu nationalism which is a growing force in India, which is polarizing communities and fueling the ever-growing segregation. The RSS is the principal political party behind this resurgence. Modern  Hindu nationalism is characterized for taking hold in the professional class, with a deliberate  revision of history sweeping any positive aspect of Islam in India's history under the rug, trying to build a new Indian  identity. Modi's political views are anti-democratic, grassroots, more complex than a standard fascist movement but is fuelled by the commonality of being and anti-movement. It defines itself by the thing  it stands against. He has an obsession with virility, with action over reason, love for the collective group, hatred for the individual. 
•    Gujarat is the Indian  Mecca for international investment, and this part of India has a strong tradition of projecting itself to the Indian Ocean. Gujaratis are one of the most important migrant group from India with a large footprint not only in the Indian ocean but also around the world especially in the United States.
•    India and China are at the same time bitter rivals and allies in the region, each political move that the other does.
•    Climate change affecting the Monson  which is hitting pretty hard Bangladesh, and the rising ocean levels have the potential of producing a total ecological and humanitarian disaster. The already invading seas water is destroying many  crops that the country depends on. Leading people losing their livelihoods which pushes them to migrate to the cities where they cannot find a decent job, making these people easy picking for Wahabist recruiters that are growing in this relatively moderate Muslim country. NGOs fill the void for the lack of State presence in Bangladesh , politics in the country is communal and bottom up, the people organize them solve to fix the overwhelming problems.
•    China has a special interest for Srilanka, investing heavily in infrastructure and logistics. Also China is interested in projecting soft power while the US is taking away financial assistance to the nation over human right issues, and has basically ignored the island for more than 10 years and China was happy to fill the void. China has block any resolution against Srilanka in the UN security council, it has trained it military officers. This is a persistent theme in the book the void that the US has left in the region is being quickly filled by China and India. China's help to the countries in the Indian Ocean with no lectures about human rights, focusing on their projection in the region and a new status quo that favors there interest as a country. The Bambo curtain has fallen over this region and with Obama's government tried to correct this with weak results. The United State obsession with the war on terror, hunting down al-Qaida lead to the US not having a proper plan to work with the countries of the Indian Ocean.
•    The Tsunami in Indonesia had deep religious and political effects on this nation, Islam made a big push in the country in the aftermath of the disaster, with a strong Anti-Western sentiment. But it is not have a conservative Muslim population, they are more liberal in general much is left to personal interpretation, Islam coexist with Hinduism and Buddhism in relative peace. 
•    Kaplan establishes an interesting position explaining that religion interacts with nature, in the case of fundamentalist capitalize on environmental contingencies and demographic stresses.  Now fundamentalist Islam raises many political question  which it offers no answers only faith and the prophet, this form of political Islam  is fueled by rage and anarchy.
•    Muslims in the middle east are obsessed with their glorious past, producing certain disconnect and alienation with the rest of the Islamic world.
•    Empires most of the time are no born on purpose, States become strong and development needs and counter-intuitively new insecurities  which lead to them having to expand, but in the case of China in their growth has leaned on soft power for a long time with an invasion of Chinese migrants spilling all over the Indian Oceans, boom of trade and comers and major investment in infrastructure. And China's rise is benefiting Arab economies.
•    Portugal was the first European power to operate in the Indian Ocean , so for many of the countries of the region they were their   first contact with  European society, which left a sour taste in the mouths because the Portuguese hacked, slash and pillaged  every time they could. Kaplan explains that the Portuguese at this time had a crusader type of mentality the more Muslims they killed the better they were hardcore fanatic Catholics.

What I liked :
•    Each chapter is structured, ecovering a country, region or city, diving into its history and explaining its geopolitical importance in modern times.
•    Learned a lot about important historical events that I was not familiar with, especial some particular aspects of colonialism in the Indian Ocean, the book digs deep into this subject.
•    In some chapters, Kaplan focuses on certain historical figures or on contemporary political figures
•    Kaplan makes a very interesting point about Arabs, in how the west defines them as desert people that lived by the sword but must not forget that that spread around the area of the Indian Ocean expanding very quick thanks to their seafaring skills and trade.
•    The author defines Pakistan as an artificial State that has nuclear capabilities, something like a Nuclear Yugoslavia. I never thought of this country in this way and it actually sent chills up my spine, Pakistan as a State can never fail, but politically the State has never been able to bring it people together with a common identity. later Kaplan explains that Indian fear Pakistan but it dreads it collapse even more.
•    I had no ideas or didn't remember the riots on Gujarat from 2002 which ended  with 1044 people dead and 223 people missing, but blew me away is that book implied in the book the that  Narendra Modi that was the chief of Gujarat  actual Prime Minister of India actually set up the whole situation that would end up in the Riots and the police where complicit during the whole, the justice system did not push for justice. The two things that I found fascinating is still the level of tension up until this day between the Muslim and Hindu communities, but the most interesting is to see how Modi who seemingly has blood on his had from this incident was able to become the Prime Minister and when he took office and  I remember it was a big deal he actually had a big event in Madison Square Garden the first time he visited the United States as head of State. Kaplan mentions that Modi never apologized or expressed regret becoming a hero for the Hindu nationalist.
•    Since Islamic terrorism did not affect Burma the United States during the 2000's never showed interest in this country or in the struggle of the Rohinja refugees.
•    I learned more about the colonial past of the Indian Ocean especially the role of the English, Dutch, and Portuguese. Now the book presents the Portuguese as a highly destructive force in the region but the Dutch were the worst.
•    Kaplan makes a very interesting affirmation that Pirates are a singe of prosperity, parasites that thrives when trade is flourishing like it is in the Indian Ocean, especial those who are established in Puntland Somalia.
   
What I didn't like or Debatable Stuff:
•    The author establishes that individuals can play a fundamental role in history and on some chapter he focuses on a major political actor of each region. From what I know from history this is a very hot topic if individuals are fundamental actors or not.
•    Some chapters of this book are too long.




Verdict: 8/10 if history and Geopolitics are your thing this book is great.